Bruce Anderson: David Cameron is not a man plagued by self-doubt. Would that were true of his party
Tory MPs are willing to be led, in the way that Henry VIII was willing to be married
Monday, 30 July 2007
It is impossible to judge a politician until he has been under pressure. Indeed, it is impossible for a politician to know himself until he has been through a crisis.
David Cameron is now enduring his first crisis, and there is some comfort for him and his supporters. Recent events have not dented him. His self-confidence is undiminished. Tony Blair, John Major and Margaret Thatcher all suffered from attacks of self-doubt. Mr Cameron does not appear to do self-doubt.
To his regret and exasperation, the same cannot be said of his party. It is instructive to contrast Labour and Tory MPs over the past few months. Until it became clear that there was no alternative to Gordon Brown, lots of Labour MPs - including ministers - were full of doubt. Then came the coronation, and suddenly all was loyalty. Almost all Labour MPs still want to win.
In that regard, the end-of-term Prime Minister's Questions was instructive. Labour MPs turned out in force to jeer David Cameron for visiting Rwanda. If you had predicted even 10 years ago that the day would come when the Labour Party would barrack a Tory leader for visiting a poor, strife-torn African country, no one would have believed you - least of all the Labour MPs who were so mirthful on Wednesday. But their team is still at the top of the league. They do not care how it stays there, as long as it does.
That is no longer true of the Tory party. Many Tory MPs have grown used to approaching politics with a mixture of fastidiousness and self-indulgence. They want to win, but on their own terms. They are willing to be led, in the way that Henry VIII was willing to be married.
This creates a recurrent problem. As John Major discovered, you cannot make runs at the wicket of leadership if your nominal supporters are trying to burn down the pavilion. The voters' response to divided parties is predictable, and justified: "If you cannot even agree among yourselves, why should we take you seriously?" It is extraordinary to observe the lengths to which some Tory MPs will go to avoid learning that simple lesson.
David Cameron wants to bring his party with him. He understands the anxieties of Tory supporters in the constituencies. But he is less tolerant of the backslidings of the MPs who ought to be his own household troops. With them, he will lead from the front. Nor does he accept that there ought to be a strategic reassessment. He is merely in favour of a tactical intensification of the pace.
This will include a greater emphasis on adversarial politics. By 2005, Mr Cameron and some of his closest advisors had become convinced that old-fashioned slanging and slagging off political opponents was worse than useless. A Tory spokesman would leave the studio delighted by the way in which he had given his Labour opponent a good kicking. He would fail to realise that all over Britain, viewers and listeners were switching off, in both senses.
Yet the absence of traditional political warfare has caused problems. It has allowed the Government to suppress its mistakes and falsify its record. There is a danger that it could enable Gordon Brown to talk as if the past 10 years had been a success. There is also a risk that Tories in the country will be alienated because their leaders are not speaking for them. They expect the Tory opposition to vociferate their own anger.
There is a compromise. Although it would be foolish to return to the stale, cliché-ridden language which politicians routinely employed to abuse one another, the politician who persuades the voters to laugh with him is winning his battle. Gordon Brown, a wit-free zone, ought to be vulnerable to mockery.
That said, adversarial politics is not enough. David Cameron is aware of a problem. He has developed policies on health, education and crime. Most of them have a common theme: mending a broken society. But the voters have not yet joined up the dots. Between now and the party conference, they will be enabled and encouraged to do so.
We will also hear a lot about Europe. The Tory party will insist that in refusing to concede a referendum on the new constitution, Mr Brown is breaking his word. Although there will be no return to the days where the Tories sounded like a single-issue pressure group, the referendum question will be fully exploited.
But the Tories have a worry, which provides another reason not to concentrate on Europe to the neglect of other matters. In his first few weeks, Gordon Brown tried to cut off oxygen supplies to the Opposition by abandoning unpopular policies before the voters had time to feel aggrieved. Is it inconceivable that he might do the same on Europe?
Were he to say that, after examining the constitutional text in detail, he finds himself unable to recommend it to Parliament, it would be hard to know whose teeth were grinding the loudest: Nicolas Sarkozy's, Angela Merkel's, or the Tory party's. Shooting the European fox would be much easier than banning fox-hunting. It would also please Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre, the editor of the Daily Mail.
It would, of course, destroy Mr Brown's Euro-diplomacy. But would he care? No one in the Cameron inner circle now thinks it inconceivable that Mr Brown could leave the French with a solitary consolation prize. He would have to use their language, when he performed a volte-face.
On one point we can be certain. There will be no relenting in the political pace. I am told that Gordon Brown is still open-minded on an early election, though the odds are against. Delighted by the recent polls, some Labour advisors are urging him to go while the going is good. Equally pleased by the polls, Mr Brown is tempted to conclude that they are a tribute to his intellectual mastery, which will increase with time. Either way, August will be a parliamentary recess, not a political one.
A few weeks ago, politicians and their advisors in all parties were looking forward to a decent summer holiday, especially as it might be the last one before the election. Now, plans have been trimmed, with long weeks becoming long weekends. David Cameron enjoys Italy and Greece. This year, he is making do with Brittany. Gordon Brown enjoys taking a bag of books to Cape Cod. This summer - if that is the word - he is taking part of his holiday in Kirkcaldy. A holiday in Kirkcaldy: a true oxymoron.
Anyone who is prepared to sacrifice Cape Cod for Kirkcaldy has demonstrated an utter commitment to retain the premiership. In Mr Brown's case, moving next door from No 11 to No 10 is holiday enough. He does not need the further luxury of Tony Blair's holidays at the Palazzo Freebeezio. This is a man who is ready to fight and fight again to hang on to the job which he has coveted for so long. In response, David Cameron will have to prove to a wider public something that his friends already know: and that is that he, too, is a fighter.



